The 49ers need Jimmy Garoppolo to bring them to the playoffs. Can he do that?

Over the last few weeks, I’ve been asked by many people if Jimmy Garoppolo could keep his job as a 49ers starting quarterback in 2022.

The answer I give to each of them – and you too – is “no”.

Now the Niners want the rest of the NFL to believe Garoppolo can return to the starting job in 2022 because they want to swap him, and such an attitude gives Kyle Shanahan and the company some influence in an agreement where they have almost none.

It’s all artificial. The Niners’ starting quarterback in 2022 will be Trey Lance. Garoppolo remains a lame duck for this team.

But here’s the fun of this lamb-and-lamb season for Garoppolo: it’s going pretty well.

However, if San Francisco wants this season to be one to remember, Garoppolo needs to be better in the coming weeks.

In fact, the Niners will need him to do something he has not done since 2019: put the team on his back and carry them to a victory, as he did the excellent season in the games in New Orleans, Arizona and Seattle.

If Garoppolo can do it just a few times, the Niners will manage the playoffs without stress, and the Niners can have some influence in trade negotiations this offseason.

If Garoppolo does not, the final third of this 2021 season will be a continuation of this season’s roller coaster.

There’s a paradox in the way the Niners have been playing lately.

Yes, that runs so much on the game of a lame duck quarterback who knows he’s a lame duck too.

And credit to Garoppolo for this – he has handled this unpleasant situation with the utmost professionalism and also a bit of humor. It’s not a small thing at all.

But on the field, the best editions of the 49ers – including the edition we’ve seen the last three weeks – have hidden Garoppolo behind a dominant running game that has referred him to being a quarterback who is only third-down.

Just take a look at the positions this or any recent season and you will see that the model is not exactly one that correlates with winning. No, the two best teams in a division can almost always boast of that season’s two best quarterbacks.

But San Francisco faces something close to an existential threat to the attack with Deebo Samuel’s groin injury. That puts Shanahan’s plan to only have Garoppolo to throw at third down (where he is paradoxically one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season) in serious jeopardy.

Although there are many ingredients for the Niners’ offensive rebirth in the last few weeks, the key has the use of Samuel. Shanahan’s ability to move Samuel in and out of the backfield – and Samuel’s unique ability to be an elite running back or receiver – has effectively guaranteed that the Niners face defense in unfavorable positions.

But Samuel is out for at least Sunday’s game against the Seahawks with a groin injury that will definitely prove to be wise for the rest of the season.

And while the Niners have huge offensive weapons and an offensive line that plays cohesive, impressive football, we’ve seen San Francisco without the fully updated Samuel. It was uninspiring.

I think George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Elijah Mitchell are fantastic, but no one can do for the 49ers’ attack what Samuel did. These players do not match their defenders. Samuel was a mismatch for the entire defense.

Niners are not back at the start, but something must provide.

In this case, it’s Shanahan’s desire to hide Jimmy G.

I’m not a fan of Garoppolo. I’m sure I’ve made it clear in the last two years, but I’m not betting on him here.

Shanahan’s decision to move him – a quarterback who does not see the field well – to the shotgun almost full time, evading his beloved play-action look, was difficult but inspired. Garoppolo’s best play – the last five in 2017, the three aforementioned victories in 2019 – involved a huge amount of shotgun snaps. It’s his football home.

Although the Niners’ other offensive weapons do not allow Shanahan to play chess while the other team plays checkers, they are quite excellent players.

In the end, though, I do not count Garoppolo off because his third-down mentality seems to be part of so much of what he does. He is an exponent and a unique one.

It would be the ultimate Garoppolo move to play his best football right when he walked out the door.

The 49s would not mind at all. A playoff spot and a good draft – maybe even a Day 2 pick – would be an excellent farewell gift from No. 10.