‘COVID-19 playoffs’: What does it take to go from pandemic to endemic? – National
Nearly 22 months since COVID-19 was classified as a global pandemic – spread to more than 100 countries – the virus continues to be a constant around the world.
Although we know more about the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 now than we did at the start, there is still a big question mark over an end date and the future of the pandemic.
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From pandemic to endemic: Global experts see ‘gradual development’ of COVID-19
“We are still very much in the middle of the pandemic,” according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
To get a better picture of what lies ahead, the WHO is studying the current level of COVID-19 antibodies as well as protection in communities around the world.
WHO is considering a number of scenarios: if vaccination initiatives remain at the same level; if production changes; and if countries can actually access vaccines and roll out vaccination programs.
“We are looking at the time between now and the end of 2022, which is the time we estimate for the global rollout of vaccines – and vaccination of the most vulnerable and vulnerable – which will change the dynamics of the transmission patterns that we” now see , the UN health agency told Global News.
A number of effective COVID-19 vaccines at our disposal have changed the course of the pandemic and reduced the serious outcome of the disease.
However, more than half of the world’s population is still not fully vaccinated, according to Oxford University’s Our World in Data.
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Vaccines prevent lockdowns, not always the spread of COVID-19: experts
Inequalities in vaccine distribution are a major concern, as only five percent of the population in low-income countries have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose.
“We should not start talking about a COVID playoffs until we have the vaccine for everyone who is willing to have one,” said David Dowdy, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, during a media briefing on 17 Nov.
“Vaccines are by far our best tool and will remain so,” he added.
Barriers related to access in the midst of a limited global vaccine supply are holding back many countries, experts say. Despite donation promises from high-income countries to COVAX, a WHO-led vaccine-sharing facility, doses to developing countries have been slow to arrive.
“We need to think of ways we can find innovative approaches to stimulating vaccination, whether through food incentives or economic incentives,” said Rupali J. Limaye, a social and behavioral researcher at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Extensive vaccination efforts are needed to curb the global spread of COVID-19, according to Horacio Bach, an infectious disease expert at the University of British Columbia. Long-term immunity and new variants pose challenges to vaccination efforts, he said.
Going forward, affordable treatments and innovations such as inhaling neutralizing antibodies – which are being tested in animal experiments – could be a game-changer, Bach added.
Without a cure, the disease can not be completely erased from the card.
“Zero COVID is never going to happen,” Dowdy said.
“This is a disease that will be with us for the foreseeable future. It comes and goes.”
The good news, though, is that as immunity increases – with greater vaccine uptake and infections – cases of COVID-19 are likely to become milder over time, he added.
Pandemic vs. endemic
In March 2020, the WHO characterized COVID-19 as a pandemic as it had spread to 114 countries.
But since the term is not recognized under international law, there is no general, formal mechanism for declaring the beginning or end of a pandemic, the WHO told Global News.
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“Once the worldwide spread of a disease is brought under control to a localized area, it is no longer a pandemic, but an epidemic,” it states.
“Further, if a disease is globally present but at expected or normal levels, it is not considered a pandemic, but rather endemic.”
There is growing consensus that COVID-19 is likely to become an endemic disease, such as chickenpox or malaria. This means that it will be limited to a specific region or countries.
“We have largely lost the opportunity to eradicate or eliminate it early because we did not attack it, globally, as vigorously as we could,” the WHO said.
The agency says that even if the virus becomes endemic, it does not mean that it will stop “being dangerous or disruptive”.
“In the long run, we hope to bring this virus under our control. With widespread vaccination and wide availability and strategic use of the tools we have, we can do this.”
In the near future, a winter rise threatens.
Europe, the global epicenter of the pandemic, is experiencing another resurgence of rising infections, despite nearly two years of restrictions.
In the United States, cases have risen steadily over the past three weeks, especially in states where colder weather has already driven people indoors.
Although an end to the pandemic is not a certainty, Dowdy said there is reason to be optimistic as vaccines have been shown to prevent serious illness, hospitalizations and deaths.
“The world may never look like it did before the pandemic, and we may still have a winter increase in cases this year, but from a COVID-19 perspective, there are many reasons to believe that things will be much better in 2022 than they have been for us for the last two years. “
– with files from the Associated Press
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